Searching for a Kevin Nisbet Replacement
Scottish Premiership clubs don’t often turn down multi-million-pound offers for one of their players. Observers lauded Hibernian’s hard-line stance when rejecting Birmingham City’s persistent bids for striker Kevin Nisbet in January, hailing it as a line in the sand for Scottish football, a sign that our clubs are finally demanding the value their top assets warrant.
11/03/2021 By Byron Hutchison
Interest in Nisbet came as a surprise to no one; he's been a revelation for Hibs this season. Just as he was for Dunfermline Athletic in the Championship last season and for Raith Rovers in League 1 the season before that. The 23-year-old has ascended the Scottish footballing pyramid on an annual basis and excelled at each level in the process.
Despite a contract that runs until 2023, the Birmingham bid will have sounded the alarm at Easter Road. If the Hibee’s recruitment team weren’t already looking for potential Nisbet replacements, they certainly will be now.
So, I’ve decided to put myself in their shoes and use a combination of data and video analysis to scour Europe in search of some potential recruits.
I began my search by gathering a data set from WyScout containing the 45 Scottish Premiership strikers who have played over 500 league minutes this season. I then built a relatively simple tool that allowed me to compare each potential recruit against any individual striker in the league as well as the median Scottish Premiership striker.
When it comes to finding suitable replacements for a player you have to ask some key questions and define some specific criteria. So first, let’s take a look at what Nisbet does for Hibernian that their other striking options, Martin Boyle and Christian Doidge, don’t.
Christian Doidge, Kevin Nisbet and Martin Boyle - Attacking Radars. Created with Charles Boutaud’s soccer radar tool.
Data set includes 45 Scottish Premiership forwards with over 500 minutes played in 2020/21, All metrics are per 90 unless otherwise stated.
Correct as of 11/03/2021
The first thing that jumps out to me is the relative similarity between Nisbet and Boyle’s profiles. Hibs may have a ready-made replacement in the Australian international. Couple him with an underperforming finisher in Doidge (the Welshman’s goals per 90 rate is significantly lower than his Non-Pen xG per 90 rate this season) and they may look at making internal adjustments to maximise those two with Nisbet no longer the focal point of their attack.
I’m going to assume, however, that Jack Ross will ultimately look to replace Nisbet at least to some degree, his side will need depth upfront at the very least. Combined, Nisbet, Boyle and Doidge have contributed to 52.6% of Hibernian’s attacking output (Non-Pen xG + xA) this season. As much as Boyle may be able to provide as an out and out striker, moving him forward to replace Nisbet creates issues deeper in the Hibs system. I’m thinking about ball-carrying and chance creation from the wing in particular. Boyle leads his side in cumulative xA this season by some distance and is second only to Ryan Kent league-wide for attempted 1v1 dribbles. Although the gap between Nisbet and Boyle in terms of offensive output isn’t huge, the same can’t be said for the gap between Boyle and some of his potential stand-ins out wide.
Ross has adapted his system recently and smart additions like Chris Cadden and Jackson Irvine have done well to replace the output lost by Boyle’s shift up-field, however, I think it’s safe to say that if both Irvine and Nisbet leave in the summer as expected, Hibs will be in a little bit of trouble.
Surprisingly, Nisbet doesn’t stand out hugely in any single metric when compared to his attacking colleagues. Sure, his 0.09 xA per 90 ranks in the 74th percentile among Scottish Premiership forwards but it’s some way behind Boyle’s 0.18 (90th percentile) and while his Non-Pen xG per 90 of 0.36 is one of the best in the division, even that is bettered by Christian Doidge’s 0.42; I did say he was underperforming.
Kevin Nisbet - Attacking Profile
Data set includes 45 Scottish Premiership forwards with over 500 minutes played in 2020/21
Correct as of 11/03/2021
The primary difference between Nisbet and his counterparts at Hibs isn’t one single thing, it’s a bit of everything. Nisbet is well rounded, he sits between Boyle and Doidge in almost all attacking metrics and it's reflected when watching Hibs play. He has what Doidge lacks in mobility, fleet-footedness and clinical finishing. And what Boyle misses in hold-up play, movement in the box and (to a much lesser degree) interplay. He scores chances created by Boyle and he creates chances for Doidge, he’s the glue, the best allrounder of the three.
I’m not necessarily looking for a one-to-one replacement for Nisbet, although I’ll do my best, replacing someone of his significance is almost an impossible task for a club at Hibs’ level. Instead, I’ll focus my search on finding a young forward who can make an impact by filling some of the void left by Nisbet while showing the promise to grow into a premium Scottish Premiership player. Just as Nisbet did this season.
What I’m looking for then is a jack-of-all-trades with a scorers touch. A striker, 23 or under, who is adept at getting into scoring positions, mobile enough to contribute defensively and run off-the-ball while possessing the technique to receive it to feet regularly, the ability to carry it at times and the creativity required to create shots for himself and others.
A tough task and for reference, there are only five players playing at any level in Scotland who meet the data requirements I set when filtering players. Of those five: Kemar Roofe, Martin Boyle, Mohammed Elyounoussi, Odsenne Edouard and Kevin Nisbet, only the latter two fit the age restriction of being 23-years-old or younger.
Ross has favoured a two-man attack in over 60% of the Hibee's matches this season according to WyScout. His side take just over 10 shots per 90 (with Nisbet accounting for 2.51 of them) and play the fourth-most passes in the division. I’m going to assume that matches in which Hibs have outperformed their opponents in terms of xG have gone to plan and are reflective of how Ross would like his side to play; the Leith outfit have had the lion-share of possession in those games, averaging 52%. For those reasons, I’ll show preference in my search to players who have experience playing as part of an attacking duo in possession orientated systems but I won’t rule anyone out on this basis alone.
Hibs have shown a willingness to spend on attacking talent in recent years and although times are tough, Nisbet is likely to fetch at least the £2,000,000 fee offered in January, if not more. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Jack Ross and co may find themselves selling a Scotland international striker fresh from a major tournament come August. With that in mind, I won’t restrict our search to out-of-contract players but I will limit myself to players with a valuation below €1,000,000 according to transfermrkt (taking those numbers with a pinch of salt of course). For reference, Nisbet is valued at €1,500,000 by the site at the time of writing.
The Shortlist
I whittled the initial long list down to 12 before diving into video footage. I did this primarily by removing players who seemed totally unattainable for various reasons or those playing at a level significantly lower than the Scottish Premiership.
In general, I don’t like to rule players out based solely on this, football is a global game and quality talent can be found in every nook and cranny of it. Terem Moffi scored 8 Ligue 1 goals in his first 18 games this season and he was playing in Lithuania just two years ago. Nisbet himself was playing Scottish League One football as a 21-year-old.
You get the point.
In this instance however I think it’s necessary, we’re hoping to replace one of Hibernian’s key players here so the jump in level shouldn’t be too great. Translating outputs from league to league is obviously a very vital factor when assessing transfer targets and I have a still unfinished model in place for trying to predict this which also helped me filter my final list. For the sake of keeping things simple though, I’ll use the UEFA country coefficient as a general reference point in this article.
You’ll notice that more than half of our shortlist play in a third or second-tier league. When searching for a player as young and well rounded as Nisbet in terms of production you’re unlikely to find one in a top division who is realistically attainable for a club of Hibs’ size. All of these guys are in my opinion potentially within range for Hibernian both in terms of transfer fee (if applicable) and salary demands.
The next step involved watching a lot of footage of each player and assessing whether or not their data matched the eye-test. I then profiled each one (using at least 1000+ minutes per player) against both Kevin Nisbet and the median Scottish Premiership striker this season before settling on my final list of four targets.
Benedikt Pichler
League: Austria 1
Club: Austria Wien
Age: 23 (20/07/97)
Contract: 30/06/23
Value: €900,000 (WyScout)
Recommendation number one comes from Austria in the shape of Benedikt Pichler (cracking name, I know). Pichler is likely one of the more expensive options on the list, that said, Austria Wien haven’t sold a player for more than €300,000 in the past three seasons so there is a chance that salary permitting, he’d be attainable for Hibs if they decide to splash the cash on a marquee signing. The 23-year-old has progressed from Austria’s third tier to its first via two transfers in two seasons, just as Nisbet did in Scotland. Pichler joined Austria Wien in January 2019 and had served predominantly as a wide midfielder or winger before transitioning to his centre forward role this season, his first as a regular starter in the top-flight.
Data Profile
Looking at Pichler’s data from the current campaign it’s easy to see why he’s top of our list. He is streets ahead of the median Scottish Premiership striker in every category, ranking in the 70th percentile or above in all but three of our key metrics and besting Nisbet in all but two; Non-Penalty Goals per 90 (0.35 vs 0.33) and Shots per 90 (2.51 vs 2.12).
There’s not much more to say that isn’t already very obvious when looking at the chart. Realistically the only players currently in the league who stack up to Pichler from a data perspective are those at Celtic and Rangers, which should tell you all you need to know.
Benedikt Pichler’s Attacking Profile
Data set includes 45 Scottish Premiership forwards with over 500 minutes played in 2020/21 + Benedikt Pichler
Correct as of 08/03/2021
Usually in cases as extreme as this certain caveats apply but I don’t think that is the case here. Pichler has totalled almost 2,000 minutes this season and the standard in the Austrian Bundesliga (which ranks 10th in UEFA’s country coefficient list) is relatively comparable to the Scottish Premiership (which ranks 11th). While the style of play is quite different and there are generally slightly more goals scored in Austria, it’s not as if Austria Wien are the league’s all-conquering kings. In fact, they’re relatively poor, sitting eighth in a 12 team league at the time of writing. Which makes his data profile all the more impressive.
Scout Report
At 6’0” (184cm) Pichler is fairly tall and comes with a sturdy frame to match, he’s a real presence on the pitch and looks physically ready for the Scottish Premiership. He's mobile, changes direction relatively quickly, possess good pace over distance and controls his body well in stride; holding defenders off when challenged and keeping his head up. Pichler’s physique also aids him when receiving the ball, he does a great job of pinning defenders behind him which makes him a handy wall-passer with his back to goal. He has a tendency to try and spin his marker and run when receiving the ball out wide or further from goal, something he does well, boasting an 88th percentile 1.98 Progressive Runs per 90.
As you may expect from a former wide midfielder he’s a very good off-ball runner down the channels and looks to break beyond the defensive line regularly. He has played on both the right and left in the past and is subsequently fairly adept at crossing with each foot, an attribute that contributes to his 0.12 xA per 90, placing him in the 81st percentile in our data set. An above-average dribbler for a central striker, Pichler has completed 49% of his 6.04 attempts per 90 and has a solid repertoire of step-overs, chops and 1v1 moves, traits I suspect are another hangover from his days as a wide-man. His decision making isn’t bad when in the final third but he can be guilty of holding on to the ball a little too long when dribbling and even if it isn’t one of our key metrics, his 63% Passing Accuracy is noteworthy as the second-lowest in our set. Although some of this can be attributed to his desire to make things happen offensively, often looking to play a decisive final ball or cross, there’s no escaping the fact that it’s an area for improvement in his game.
In the box, the Austrian moves well, remains active and has an explosive first step. He confidently takes on shots with both feet but lacks a bit of technique and power when striking the ball, preferring to place shots with his instep if given time to do so, there is scope for improvement in this area with the right coaching. Generally speaking, his goal-scoring is predicated on his movement, mobility and ability to find high xG opportunities rather than out and out finishing prowess. I’d suggest his underperformance with regards to his Non-Pen xG backs up the eye-test on this. He’s a very good aerial threat too, competing for the ball more than most he possesses great leaping and accurate heading ability.
Pichler is already comfortable playing in a two-man attack, his current club have opted for either a 4-4-2 or a 3-4-1-2 in 60% of their league games so far this season. He would of course need to make some adjustments to fit Ross’ system; this season at least, Pichler has been part of a side that tends to concede possession to their opponents, playing more on the break. However, at 23 there’s a lot to like about him already and he has shown himself to be more than capable of getting up to speed when adapting to a new league or environment. With a few tweaks and some specific instruction, I believe Pichler could be as good a Nisbet replacement as Hibs could hope for.
SYDNEY VAN HOOIJDONK
League: Netherlands 2
Club: NAC Breda
Age: 21 (06/02/2000)
Contract: 30/06/21
Value: €500,000 (WyScout)
Next up we have someone slightly younger but with a familiar enough name for Scottish football fans, Sydney van Hooijdonk. The right-footed NAC Breda striker, son of former Celtic goal-getter Pierre, has enjoyed a breakout season in the Dutch second-tier. Despite his dad’s many achievements in football Sydney didn’t develop at a professional academy, instead, he made his way as a youngster playing for local amateur side VV Beek Vooruit before eventually being recruited by Breda in 2017, already aged 17. After a sensational return of 42 goals in 57 games combined for the u19s and u21s, Sydney made his first-team debut in 2018 with Breda amid an Eredivisie relegation battle. He made 12 appearances from the bench in total in a season that ultimately saw Breda relegated. Van Hooijdonk had established himself as the club’s leading striker in the Eerste Divisie over the season and a half since his debut but has been sidelined recently, presumably due to his contract status and pending departure.
Data Profile
This season van Hooijdonk has shown all the signs of a striker capable of performing at a higher level. His goal scoring rate is bettered only by Cedric Itten, Kemar Roofe and Leigh Griffiths while his Goal Conversion (%) ranks as the very best in our data set. There are of course flaws, while he excels as a traditional number 9 and an out and out goal scorer he trails Nisbet and even the median Scottish Premiership striker in some of the supporting categories we’re looking for. Suggesting he’s not quite the all-rounder that Hibs may require just yet but what van Hooijdonk does have on his side is time. At 21 he’s far from the finished article and those supporting metrics are still reasonable enough to suggest he could hit Nisbet’s marks if given time.
Sydney van Hooijdonk - Attacking Profile
Data set includes 45 Scottish Premiership forwards with over 500 minutes played in 2020/21 + Sydney van Hooijdonk
Correct as of 11/03/2021
Unlike Pichler, some caveats apply for Sydney, while there are some genuinely decent sides in the Eerste Divisie the reality for van Hooijdonk is that on a week-to-week basis he is up against a poorer standard of competition than is found in the Scottish Premiership. In general, there are more chances created and in turn, goals scored per 90 in the Eerste Divisie as well, however, with his attacking numbers so far above the norm, even if they were to drop by half (which would be extreme) at a higher level his metrics would still represent those of a good Scottish Premiership striker.
Scout Report
Van Hooijdonk is a leggy 6’1” (186cm) but fills his frame all the same. He accelerates well, takes long strides and while not especially quick overall, he’s fast enough to keep a high-line on its toes. He’s strong in the air, wins a good number of highballs in midfield and looks to flick the ball on when runners move beyond him. He can be a little one dimensional with his back to goal at times and although he can pin defenders and play quick one-twos fairly well, he doesn’t always position his body ideally to receive the ball under pressure and can be let down by his first touch. Given his size and strength, I believe he has the physicality for the Scottish Premiership but would need some time to adjust to the higher tempo, increased contact and rigour of the football here.
A plus point in Sydney's game is his willingness to run. Van Hooijdonk occupies the channels well and aggressively pursues balls played over the top. He isn’t a particularly great dribbler but seemingly recognises this flaw, keeping his attempts to just 2.0 Dribbles per 90 (of which he completes 52%). Usually doing a solid job of holding the ball up until teammates arrive to support. While he can struggle to pick passes in deeper positions, he does have a decent eye for a final ball in more advanced areas when able to turn and see movement in front of him. Van Hooijdonk does his best work in and on the edge of the opposition penalty area, occupying defenders with his size and creating space for himself and others with his movement. When defenders get tight to van Hooijdonk in off-the-ball situations he tends to control the engagement, positioning himself well to roll off his marker and run in behind. This type of play makes him particularly effective when his side are trying to penetrate a low-block or slide in low crosses from the byline.
As you would expect from a more traditional centre forward, he is a superb striker of the ball both instinctively and when given time to settle. Preferring his right foot, he generates a lot of power and can hit the ball using a variety of techniques, possessing the craft required to place the ball when appropriate. All of these factors combine to make him the top-ranked player for Shots on Target (72.73%) and Goal Conversion (36.36%) in our data set. Van Hooijdonk’s ball-striking ability also lends itself to set-pieces with the Dutchman being something of a direct free-kick specialist. Despite doing well in the air during build-up play, his heading ability in front of goal is an area in need of improvement. Considering his stature and leaping ability, there is real room for growth in this department and if nurtured it’s an area of his game that could result in a lot more goals than it does currently.
Perhaps the most appealing thing about van Hooijdonk is the fact he’s out of contract in the summer and seems set on leaving Breda at the end of his current term. The Dutchman is reportedly keen on a move to the UK and like his dad before him, may see Scotland as an appealing route to take. He has yet to play in a system like the one deployed by Hibs so far In his young career and there would undoubtedly be an adjustment period if the he made a move to Scotland. But as a prospect van Hooijdonk represents a solid option for the Hibees and a potentially shrewd Nisbet-like financial investment if he continues to progress along his current trajectory.
Anastasios Douvikas
League: Greece 1
Club: Volos FC
Age: 21 (02/08/1999)
Contract: 30/06/23
Value: €400,000 (WyScout)
Alright, so we’re going a little further afield for our next recommendation, to Greece. 21-year-old Anastasios ‘Tasos’ Douvikas spent seven years with amateur club Aristeas Argous before joining the academy setup at his local professional side Asteras Tripolis in the Greek Super League in 2015. Douvikas earned his top-flight debut in Greece two years later as an 18-year-old and although he went on to play a further 39 times for the club scoring just two goals in the process, he did so playing exclusively from the bench. Notching less than 900 minutes in total, including 33 minutes against Hibs in a Europa League qualifier. After spending the majority of the 2019/20 season in the reserves Douvikas was allowed to leave for fellow Super League outfit Volos FC on a free transfer and has rewarded their faith in him handsomely, scoring 36% of the club's goals after 23 matches this season.
Data Profile
Douvikas stacks up well enough to Nisbet from a data perspective and outperforms 70% of Scottish Premiership strikers in six of our key data points. Like Nisbet, Tasos excels in the crucial goal-scoring and conversion metrics but falls a little short in some of the supporting categories. Even though he struggles with regards to Shot Assists per 90, his xA per 90 isn’t that far below the league median and after digging a little deeper on some of his additional passing outputs I would suggest his struggles here are more a reflection of his team's style of play and his role within that than of the player himself. With the lowest individual median ranking on our list, Douvikas made the cut based more on the eye-test than his raw data alone.
Anastasios Douvika - Attacking Profile
Data set includes 45 Scottish Premiership forwards with over 500 minutes played in 2020/21 + Anastasios Douvika
Correct as of 11/03/2021
The Greek Super League ranks 20th in the UEFA country coefficient and is a slight puzzle in that there are a cluster of, I’d argue six, genuinely good or decent sides and a raft of significantly poorer ones. At present, Volos are the best of the rest, sitting comfortably in 7th. Douvikas not only exceeds the Scottish Premiership median significantly in multiple data points but he’s doing so in a league that sees fewer goals scored than the Scottish Premiership on a per 90 basis, a factor which would stand him in good stead if he made the move to Scotland.
Scout Report
Right-footed Douvikas is a very good athlete. A high-effort player, he’s 6’0” (184cm), well built with a compact powerful running style. While not especially explosive he really starts shifting after 5-10 yards and can quite comfortably outrun most defenders over distance. He runs well with the ball at his feet too, keeping it close while taking soft touches. One of Douvikas' biggest attributes is his ability to win fouls, he does a great job of shifting his body in front of defenders after dribbling past them, often forcing a clumsy tackle or tangle of legs. He has great leaping ability and is more than happy to compete in the air, his 79th percentile rank for Aerial Duels per 90 reflects his endeavour while his 73rd percentile rank for Aerial Duels Won (%) backs up his ability in that department.
In his current role at Volos, Douvikas provides a constant threat in behind defenders and looks for balls over the top where he can use his pace regularly. He’s not required to do so often but he’s a very good ball carrier and is more than capable of driving his team 40 or 50 yards up the field when his side look to break from opposition corners or after winning the ball deep in their own half. He keeps active and on his toes when off-the-ball in the opposition box, moving to his markers blind side regularly while searching for angles and runs to latch on to the end of crosses or through balls.
Douvikas is tidy from a technical perspective. In the box he exhibits good speed of thought and a soft, clever first touch, using it to quickly create space between himself and his marker, comfortably going either right or left despite his right-foot preference. He’s both an instinctive first-time finisher when under-pressure and a calm, clinical striker when time and space are in his favour, he makes solid contact with the ball, generating plenty of power if and when required. He picks his shots well too, his Non-Pen xG per Shot of 0.23 is the second-best in our data set and you can see why when watching him play. He’s patient, taking few shots and usually looking to pass wide if outside of the box rather than take a pop-shot. As mentioned previously the Greek u21 international controls his body well when dribbling and that is complemented by his nimble footwork, he changes direction quickly with the ball at his feet and although he doesn’t do it too often he is more than capable of squaring up defenders. It’s not a major part of his current side's game but Douvikas does show signs of being an intelligent, aggressive presser too. He works hard defensively, remaining alert, pouncing on errors with urgency while competing for a 76th percentile 4.9 Defence Duels per 90.
Scoring goals at the rate he has this season means Douvikas is likely on the radar of a few bigger clubs in Greece. However, if Hibs can secure European football, they can offer the youngster just as much on the footballing side as the likes of PAOK or AEK Athens as well as an ever-appealing gateway to British football. Given his current club's lack of leverage or history of selling assets, he may well be attainable for the Leith side if they make a move early enough. There is the risk that Douvikas, who is in the midst of his first real season as a starter, is simply enjoying a purple-patch but I think his form has more to do with him enjoying a sustained run of football for the first time in his career than anything else. Douvikas has experience playing in both a two-man attack and as a lone striker and his combination of pace, work ethic and above-average technique would see him settle well in the Scottish top-flight, he’d be a worthwhile gamble at the right price.
Ryan Mmaee
League: Cyprus 1
Club: AEL Limassol
Age: 23 (01/11/1997)
Contract: 30/06/21
Value: €540,000 (WyScout)
We’re going to remain in the Mediterranean for my final recommendation, shifting our search from Greece to Cyprus we find 23-year-old Ryan Mmaee. Belgian-born Mmaee began his youth career with a local boys club before finding his way to the KAA Gent academy at 13. He would move on to Standard Liege just three years later before making his senior debut for the club at 17-years-old in 2015. Once a star in a Belgium u19 side that featured current Bundesliga striker Dodi Lukebakio, a teenage Mmaee even netted in a 2-0 win over Scotland’s u19s back in 2016. Despite his early break-through Mmaee was unable to establish himself at Liege and after underwhelming loan spells at Waasland-Beveren in the Belgian top-tier and AGF in the Danish Superliga, the one-time hot-prospect found himself without a club in July 2019. He signed with AEL Limassol in the Cypriot top-flight that summer and after taking time to settle initially Mmaee has rekindled some of his early promise while in Cyprus. Producing some of the best per 90 metrics in the division this season.
Data Profile
Mmaee is another who on paper, looks excellent, ranking in the 70th percentile or above in eight different categories. The only sizeable differences between Nisbet and Mmaee are in Aerial Duels per 90, Shot Assists per 90 and Received Passes per 90; Mmaee comfortably exceeds Nisbet in the first two while he trails him in the latter. There are a few weak points but in comparison to the league median, none of them are a cause for concern and overall the Moroccan international profiles very strongly.
Ryan Mmaee - Attacking Profile
Data set includes 45 Scottish Premiership forwards with over 500 minutes played in 2020/21 + Ryan Mmaee
Correct as of 11/03/2021
The Cypriot league ranks higher in the UEFA country coefficient than I suspect some might have guessed at 15th (a reminder that Scotland ranks 11th), that’s above Greece, Serbia, Switzerland and Croatia to name just a few. While the league has a reputation as something of a sunny retirement home, a 34-year-old Jason Puncheon is currently enjoying his second season in the division, many clubs have done a good job of recruiting academy drop-outs from established European countries in recent years which has seen the overall standard improve. That said, I’d tax Mmaee’s numbers a little and would expect a drop-off initially if he were to make the move to Scotland.
Scout Report
Mmaee is a 6’0” (184cm) right-footer with a strong upper body and explosive first step. He has more of a relaxed running style over distance, rarely breaking into a full sprint with the ball, though he presses intensely at times and tracks back well. His frame and body control are real assets; Mmaee is really strong when backing into defenders, positioning himself and shielding the ball from his marker well, he’s very adept at playing quick one-twos or holding the ball up as a result. Although his leaping ability is only slightly above average his aptitude for controlling defenders physically aids him here, he’s a good threat in the air and wins more than his fair share of headers in midfield. I would flag some concerns with his stamina over 90 minutes and could see this being a problem upon arrival in Scotland, however, this is something that may be remedied in the right professional environment.
Possessing a very good first touch, Mmaee has a little bit of extra flair to his game that none of our previous recommendations have shown. He has quick feet on the ball and can twist and turn out of tight situations, evading pressure well. Mmaee poses a real problem for defenders, he wins more than his entitled number of fouls and ranks in the 68th percentile in our data set for Dribbles per 90, completing his 3.65 attempts at an impressive rate of 51%. He has a tendency to drop deep, descending into half-spaces to collect the ball before either sweeping it out wide or looking to turn and run at defenders. When facing goal in the final-third Mmaee is a penetrating passer with good vision, he ranks as the very best forward passer in our group in terms of Accurate Forward Pass (%) and is in the 86th percentile for Smart Passes per 90. While his dribbling and willingness to drop deep are undoubted positives in the right system I would have some concerns with the casual nature of his play at times. Mmaee has a lot of confidence on the ball and this can sometimes result in lapses in concentration or carelessness in deeper areas that would worry me slightly in a higher tempo league like the Scottish Premiership.
In the box, Mmaee’s aforementioned explosive first step and acceleration are big plus points. Allowing him to quickly create space for shots or lose his marker to get on the end of dangerous passes into the penalty area. He has good technique when striking the ball too, making a clean connection with first-time strikes in particular. A fairly disciplined shooter, Mmaee ranks in the 86th percentile for xG per Shot, with 88% of his shots this season coming from inside the opposition box. A composed finisher in general the Moroccan finds the back of the net with just over 23% of his shots, picking his moments and moving well to create high xG opportunities for himself. His vision and passing ability remain present in the box and he’s unselfish in his willingness to pick the right ball, a factor that contributes to his xA per 90 of 0.09, ranking him in the 75th percentile.
Mmaee is another who is a free agent this summer and with no deal on the table, he is free to leave Cyprus in July. Having rebuilt his career to some degree after his loan troubles the 23-year-old will look to pick his next club wisely and a steadily progressing Hibs side may be able to provide just the sort of platform he is looking for. However, despite his Bosman status, Mmaee wouldn’t be a risk-free acquisition. Cypriot clubs pay fairly handsomely and if he is affordable at all for Hibs, he’d likely eat up a sizeable chunk of Jack Ross’ budget and subsequently face a certain level of expectation. Mmaee’s style of play would gel well with Doidge though and given his similarities from both a data and playing perspective I suspect he would make for a serviceable replacement for Nisbet.
Kevin Nisbet is unlikely to remain in Leith for much longer and will undoubtedly leave a sizeable hole in the Hibs attack next season. But with money in their pocket, an open-mind and smart use of data and video, Hibs fans shouldn’t be too downbeat about his inevitable departure. I reckon all four of the above recommendations represent exciting, viable options for the Hibees, each of them bringing their own set of pros and cons to the table. It’ll be tough but if the recruitment team at Easter Road do their due diligence, there’s every possibility they’ll find a suitable replacement for their top goalscorer this coming summer.
Notes
All data featured in this article has been provided by WyScout and is correct as of 11/12/21.
The Radar tool I used to compare Hibernian’s current strikers was created by Charles Boutaud and if you’d like to create your own radars you can do so here.
The comparison tool I used was created by myself in Tableau, a simpler version featuring the complete data set can be found here.
I used an additional dashboard that owes a lot to a Rob Carroll tutorial in order to quickly compare my initial shortlist, you can play with a version of that here.
There has been a lot of discussion on FT around the length of scout reports recently and I’m obviously aware that this article is quite long. I hope it’s clear that this isn’t in any way meant to represent a working scout report, that said, I did create one for each player in the process of writing this and if you would like a copy of one feel free to get in touch.